* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PABLO AL182019 10/26/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 47 49 52 54 53 46 43 39 34 31 27 22 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 47 49 52 54 53 46 43 39 34 31 27 22 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 42 44 46 46 47 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 40 41 37 34 29 29 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -6 -1 -1 2 -5 -6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 231 224 225 225 253 262 267 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.8 22.6 22.4 21.4 20.2 18.3 16.9 16.1 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 91 91 87 82 76 71 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 80 81 82 79 75 70 66 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.2 -55.6 -56.5 -57.7 -60.2 -60.6 -61.1 -60.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.9 2.2 1.9 2.1 0.9 -0.6 -0.3 -0.6 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 44 45 47 49 50 55 58 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 18 19 18 19 18 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 160 152 142 145 123 117 85 99 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 45 16 54 54 26 10 7 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -16 -8 11 19 54 53 62 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1864 1753 1625 1453 1295 1077 1007 1023 914 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.3 35.9 36.4 37.8 39.1 42.1 44.3 46.0 47.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.7 29.1 27.4 25.8 24.2 22.2 21.5 21.3 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 14 16 18 17 14 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 791 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -9. -16. -22. -28. -33. -39. -46. -51. -53. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 17. 21. 27. 32. 34. 36. 38. 39. 37. 33. 30. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 13. 6. 3. -1. -6. -9. -13. -18. -23. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 35.3 30.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182019 PABLO 10/26/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.11 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182019 PABLO 10/26/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 47 49 52 54 53 46 43 39 34 31 27 22 17 DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 41 44 46 49 51 50 43 40 36 31 28 24 19 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 41 44 46 45 38 35 31 26 23 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 35 37 36 29 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT