* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * PABLO AL182019 10/25/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 50 49 46 32 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 48 37 32 30 29 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 49 38 33 30 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 49 58 59 56 56 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 6 2 1 0 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 229 228 227 228 236 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 23.6 23.8 24.0 24.4 20.6 12.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 100 102 104 106 87 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 95 96 97 98 81 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 55 56 55 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 21 20 20 20 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 115 122 110 69 55 107 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 62 40 67 71 120 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 43 48 64 53 42 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 283 26 -138 -393 -662 -783 -754 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.0 29.3 31.6 34.2 36.7 41.3 46.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.5 91.5 90.5 89.1 87.8 83.7 79.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 25 27 28 28 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCL INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -15. -27. -37. -46. -55. -62. -68. -78. -84. -88. -90. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -13. -22. -30. -39. -48. -56. -63. -71. -76. -80. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.0 92.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182019 PABLO 10/25/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 51.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182019 PABLO 10/26/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182019 PABLO 10/26/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 37 32 30 29 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 33 28 26 25 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 36 34 33 34 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 32 33 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT