* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NESTOR AL162019 10/18/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 52 51 48 40 32 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 52 52 45 39 31 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 53 54 52 39 31 31 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 35 35 37 36 38 39 57 66 65 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 12 7 8 6 6 4 -4 -9 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 276 282 294 293 295 293 300 300 317 303 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.5 28.2 27.6 27.1 24.6 23.1 26.3 25.3 25.4 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 147 142 134 128 105 95 118 106 106 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 136 130 121 115 95 86 100 88 87 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.9 -54.6 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 50 49 53 57 56 51 41 26 27 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 20 19 16 15 16 15 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -8 -29 -15 -5 -38 -15 -24 -22 -62 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 60 57 43 52 4 -6 -47 -61 -109 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 27 33 43 59 55 49 43 23 0 11 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 294 211 140 -17 -119 -33 37 313 460 520 547 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.6 28.8 29.9 31.0 33.2 35.1 36.3 36.9 36.9 37.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.2 87.8 86.3 84.9 83.5 80.0 75.9 72.3 70.2 69.1 68.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 17 16 17 19 18 13 7 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 61 25 14 16 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 19 CX,CY: 16/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -11. -18. -29. -38. -45. -49. -54. -60. -64. -67. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -15. -22. -22. -23. -22. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -2. -10. -18. -27. -36. -52. -64. -67. -72. -76. -77. -77. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.4 89.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162019 NESTOR 10/18/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162019 NESTOR 10/18/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162019 NESTOR 10/18/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 52 45 39 31 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 49 42 36 28 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 39 33 25 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 34 26 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT