* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OCTAVE EP182019 10/18/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 40 37 36 33 32 32 34 33 35 36 37 38 38 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 40 37 36 33 32 32 34 33 35 36 37 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 43 43 41 38 35 34 32 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 12 15 20 24 21 19 16 15 10 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 0 -3 -9 -9 -2 3 7 0 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 52 80 106 121 134 142 127 112 102 107 108 113 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 136 137 136 136 136 136 136 136 137 137 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 45 45 44 41 32 31 30 35 37 40 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 10 1 13 5 -14 -6 -2 6 5 -1 -22 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 22 -2 -6 -23 -9 -46 -75 -66 -30 -23 -35 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2203 2178 2154 2137 2121 2106 2130 2161 2176 2167 2167 2151 2143 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.4 11.2 11.0 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.6 126.6 126.6 126.6 126.6 126.4 126.5 126.7 126.9 127.0 127.1 127.1 127.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -6. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 10.4 126.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182019 OCTAVE 10/18/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.35 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 -2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.31 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 15.4% 13.4% 9.5% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.2% 2.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 5.9% 5.1% 3.3% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182019 OCTAVE 10/18/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##