* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162019 10/18/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 36 32 28 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 32 29 28 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 33 26 27 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 27 33 34 37 36 39 41 46 52 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 9 11 11 10 7 8 7 -2 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 284 288 274 273 279 290 293 296 299 300 316 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.3 27.6 25.1 24.5 26.3 25.2 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 161 159 154 143 134 109 104 118 106 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 155 154 149 141 130 122 99 93 101 90 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.9 -54.7 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 52 48 46 52 50 46 36 29 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 19 20 21 20 16 16 16 16 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 0 4 -6 -13 8 -25 -17 -21 -28 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 38 66 66 40 50 19 0 -52 -79 -65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 15 21 19 34 27 59 32 14 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 445 435 290 168 159 -72 -20 29 219 437 560 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.1 25.3 26.5 27.6 28.6 30.6 32.7 34.5 35.7 36.2 36.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.2 91.7 90.2 88.9 87.6 84.7 80.8 76.6 73.3 70.9 68.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 18 17 16 16 18 19 17 13 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 80 74 70 53 18 5 0 0 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 10 CX,CY: 8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -12. -19. -28. -39. -44. -49. -56. -60. -63. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -6. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 4. 1. 0. 0. -2. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -3. -7. -11. -17. -29. -31. -34. -38. -40. -41. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.1 93.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162019 SIXTEEN 10/18/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 3.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162019 SIXTEEN 10/18/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162019 SIXTEEN 10/18/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 38 32 29 28 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 31 28 27 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 27 24 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 20 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT