* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162019 10/18/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 43 44 40 34 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 43 44 31 28 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 38 33 28 27 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 29 31 32 33 36 35 37 42 56 57 56 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 6 9 7 12 6 6 6 14 -1 0 -3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 280 283 276 271 290 281 293 288 294 294 311 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.7 28.0 26.3 24.9 22.7 26.3 25.8 25.7 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 165 161 150 139 120 107 92 117 111 110 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 155 159 157 152 139 126 108 95 82 99 93 91 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -53.3 -54.1 -54.9 -55.4 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 60 53 48 50 53 49 39 31 27 42 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 17 20 22 22 19 16 15 15 14 10 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 2 -2 9 -1 -10 0 13 -13 -22 -47 -53 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 38 37 72 77 33 42 -8 -43 -69 -90 -4 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 18 16 18 21 48 34 25 13 9 24 29 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 327 427 405 262 132 0 -143 -62 49 318 436 436 480 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.5 25.6 26.8 27.9 30.2 32.3 34.4 35.8 36.8 37.5 38.1 38.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.6 93.2 91.8 90.3 88.8 85.9 82.6 78.8 75.2 72.1 69.7 67.9 66.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 17 17 18 18 17 18 17 15 12 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 66 75 74 79 50 18 0 0 0 6 2 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 15. 18. 19. 19. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -10. -17. -26. -36. -45. -51. -59. -64. -67. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 4. 1. 0. -1. -3. -9. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 5. -1. -8. -16. -24. -35. -37. -41. -43. -44. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.4 94.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162019 SIXTEEN 10/18/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 68.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 2.9% 2.5% 2.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 5.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162019 SIXTEEN 10/18/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162019 SIXTEEN 10/18/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 40 43 44 31 28 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 41 42 29 26 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 36 37 24 21 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT