* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152019 10/15/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 30 30 28 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 30 30 28 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 28 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 14 18 20 33 42 50 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 4 2 0 0 -4 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 214 220 219 227 223 231 234 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.4 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.3 25.7 26.1 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 128 121 119 118 116 111 115 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 120 113 110 109 107 102 105 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 55 51 51 50 45 39 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 11 11 7 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 38 19 13 27 5 4 -4 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 34 39 47 57 37 15 3 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 5 8 9 18 16 21 19 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 411 482 557 632 707 842 963 1133 1316 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.5 19.5 20.6 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 21.3 21.8 22.4 22.9 23.5 24.6 26.1 27.9 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 8 3 2 2 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 21. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. -0. -8. -15. -21. -26. -28. -29. -32. -34. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -14. -18. -19. -20. -21. -22. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -21. -22. -23. -23. -22. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.3 21.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152019 FIFTEEN 10/15/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.55 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.52 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.15 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 9.8% 6.8% 4.7% 3.7% 5.5% 2.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.7% 2.5% 1.6% 1.3% 1.9% 1.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152019 FIFTEEN 10/15/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 30 30 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 29 28 28 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT