* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152019 10/15/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 35 31 28 25 21 18 18 17 16 16 17 18 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 35 31 28 25 21 18 18 17 16 16 17 18 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 32 31 28 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 8 8 12 19 27 38 45 47 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -1 -4 0 2 -1 -3 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 191 190 214 211 218 231 225 228 233 240 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.6 26.8 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.8 25.9 25.9 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 131 121 116 114 111 111 111 111 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 131 124 114 108 106 102 100 100 99 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.4 -55.9 -56.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 57 55 53 46 40 33 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 32 35 27 18 13 13 3 -14 -34 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 29 19 18 37 44 33 12 -4 2 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 4 3 6 17 18 21 23 17 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 330 387 457 534 615 779 866 969 1078 1193 1294 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 18.0 19.3 20.4 21.2 21.7 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 20.5 21.1 21.7 22.3 22.9 24.0 25.1 26.3 27.4 28.5 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 12 9 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 19. 20. 20. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -4. -11. -20. -27. -29. -30. -33. -35. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 20.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152019 FIFTEEN 10/15/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.68 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.58 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.77 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 13.9% 9.0% 6.2% 5.3% 7.3% 6.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 7.9% 4.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 7.6% 4.4% 2.4% 1.9% 2.7% 2.1% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152019 FIFTEEN 10/15/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 35 35 31 28 25 21 18 18 17 16 16 17 18 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 33 29 26 23 19 16 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 29 25 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT