* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 10/01/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 82 77 68 51 39 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 84 82 77 68 51 39 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 82 77 71 63 51 43 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 15 26 34 45 49 33 18 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 13 11 8 9 8 0 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 197 184 192 188 190 210 220 305 313 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 25.3 23.9 22.4 20.0 16.6 15.1 13.4 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 113 103 96 86 78 73 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 104 96 90 81 74 70 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.3 -51.3 -52.0 -54.9 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.4 2.0 1.4 0.9 1.5 2.7 2.6 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 43 37 38 37 42 47 45 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 45 47 47 46 43 40 41 35 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 75 84 86 77 87 116 61 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 107 119 137 136 106 92 49 -40 -84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 36 35 -13 -57 -43 -20 -9 40 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1822 1800 1815 1865 1570 951 446 208 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.3 36.2 38.1 40.5 42.9 48.1 52.7 55.6 58.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.0 36.6 34.3 31.3 28.4 22.1 16.8 11.7 6.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 27 30 33 33 31 25 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 20 CX,CY: 13/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -21. -31. -41. -48. -52. -56. -60. -63. -65. -66. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -8. -16. -20. -18. -22. -22. -22. -25. -27. -30. -32. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -2. -5. -6. -15. -33. -35. -37. -38. -38. -36. -35. -34. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -8. -17. -34. -46. -57. -86. -91. -96.-100.-104.-107.-110.-113.-117. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 34.3 39.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.09 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 522.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 8( 17) 3( 20) 0( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 84 82 77 68 51 39 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 82 77 68 51 39 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 76 67 50 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 66 49 37 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 49 37 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 84 75 69 66 57 45 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT