* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 10/01/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 83 80 76 58 44 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 83 83 80 76 58 44 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 83 81 77 72 58 49 40 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 14 16 23 32 49 49 18 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 14 12 9 8 7 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 201 184 189 193 201 203 253 299 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 26.2 25.3 23.9 22.4 17.9 15.4 14.2 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 120 113 104 96 81 75 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 110 105 97 90 77 71 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -51.3 -51.3 -52.5 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.1 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.4 2.6 4.1 2.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 52 45 39 39 41 48 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 46 45 46 47 46 42 43 44 30 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 78 70 80 77 90 123 119 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 107 95 126 159 143 74 96 26 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 36 36 32 -28 -55 -12 -37 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1892 1842 1819 1843 1840 1250 580 190 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.7 34.4 36.0 38.2 40.4 45.9 51.0 54.0 57.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.5 38.6 36.6 33.8 31.0 24.6 18.5 12.9 7.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 23 27 31 34 34 27 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 18 CX,CY: 13/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -19. -29. -38. -45. -49. -53. -56. -60. -62. -63. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -5. -12. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -18. -20. -23. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -5. -5. -25. -26. -28. -29. -29. -28. -28. -27. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -5. -9. -27. -41. -47. -73. -78. -82. -86. -90. -94. -97.-101.-105. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 32.7 40.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 491.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 9( 18) 5( 22) 0( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 83 83 80 76 58 44 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 84 81 77 59 45 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 78 74 56 42 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 71 53 39 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 48 34 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 83 74 68 65 55 41 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 83 83 74 68 64 50 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS