* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/30/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 90 89 87 76 56 41 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 90 90 89 87 76 56 41 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 89 87 86 83 72 56 46 37 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 12 15 21 31 53 52 21 37 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 3 11 8 7 5 6 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 250 242 203 190 190 200 206 256 294 292 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.0 26.4 26.4 25.4 22.6 18.1 15.1 14.2 13.1 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 126 121 122 114 96 81 74 70 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 113 109 111 105 90 76 70 67 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -50.7 -51.5 -54.4 -56.9 -57.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.2 2.5 2.3 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 53 47 40 38 46 57 52 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 46 47 47 46 48 45 42 41 40 27 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 50 66 86 85 91 86 114 91 78 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 98 95 97 103 142 131 58 98 28 17 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 25 36 34 16 -48 -61 -87 70 60 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2038 1953 1878 1824 1796 1870 1311 718 439 371 297 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.3 31.6 32.9 34.6 36.2 40.5 45.9 50.9 54.3 56.7 59.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.6 41.5 40.4 38.5 36.7 31.5 25.6 20.5 16.7 13.5 10.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 20 22 26 32 32 25 18 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 11 CX,CY: 4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -17. -27. -38. -47. -54. -58. -62. -66. -67. -68. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -18. -18. -17. -21. -23. -25. -27. -29. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. -2. -7. -8. -12. -31. -49. -50. -50. -48. -46. -44. -43. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -14. -34. -49. -57. -80.-106.-111.-114.-115.-117.-119.-123. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 30.3 42.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 429.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 4.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 12( 23) 10( 30) 5( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 90 90 89 87 76 56 41 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 89 88 86 75 55 40 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 85 83 72 52 37 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 67 47 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 60 40 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 90 81 75 72 65 45 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 90 90 81 75 71 51 36 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS