* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/30/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 83 83 82 77 62 43 41 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 83 83 83 82 77 62 43 41 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 82 80 79 78 72 60 49 41 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 12 9 10 11 25 44 53 35 20 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 5 6 11 9 5 0 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 222 249 243 211 188 190 201 213 276 297 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.5 26.9 26.6 26.3 24.0 19.3 15.9 14.4 13.1 12.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 125 123 121 104 84 75 71 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 116 112 111 110 97 80 72 68 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -51.8 -50.1 -52.2 -55.5 -57.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.5 2.2 1.1 1.5 2.5 2.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 60 54 42 40 45 47 57 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 45 46 48 48 47 45 42 39 44 35 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 46 49 59 86 89 92 106 107 52 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 96 100 109 124 132 86 58 61 15 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 21 21 29 35 40 -23 -113 -40 -16 36 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2119 2033 1952 1882 1829 1823 1521 918 573 405 365 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.4 30.6 31.7 33.2 34.6 38.5 43.7 49.2 53.2 55.9 58.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.9 42.1 41.3 39.8 38.4 33.8 27.9 22.5 18.6 15.3 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 16 19 23 31 34 28 20 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 12 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 11 CX,CY: 4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -13. -22. -31. -39. -46. -50. -53. -56. -58. -59. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -13. -16. -13. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. -1. -5. -11. -6. -19. -37. -38. -38. -37. -36. -34. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -3. -8. -23. -42. -44. -57. -79. -82. -86. -90. -94. -98.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 29.4 42.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.63 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 368.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.01 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.59 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 11.9% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.7% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 9( 18) 8( 25) 6( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 83 83 83 82 77 62 43 41 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 84 84 83 78 63 44 42 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 81 80 75 60 41 39 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 74 69 54 35 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 61 46 27 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 83 74 68 65 60 45 26 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 83 83 74 68 64 49 30 28 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS