* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/30/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 86 85 86 86 76 60 53 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 87 86 85 86 86 76 60 53 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 86 85 84 83 80 72 60 49 37 27 26 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 14 14 12 16 29 56 62 40 36 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 2 3 2 9 9 11 1 8 4 22 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 230 232 247 236 180 184 195 209 274 282 216 176 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.0 26.6 25.4 22.7 18.5 15.4 15.1 14.6 14.4 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 134 126 123 114 97 81 72 69 66 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 119 112 111 104 90 76 69 65 62 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -50.4 -50.5 -54.5 -56.3 -52.6 -48.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.3 2.9 2.7 1.4 0.8 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 64 63 62 60 48 37 34 33 48 57 66 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 44 45 46 47 48 49 46 44 49 43 28 14 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 36 44 47 47 99 114 120 176 75 103 182 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 39 94 105 117 143 112 60 81 22 37 64 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 22 19 24 35 29 28 -24 -34 -23 70 120 39 -62 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2230 2147 2068 1990 1922 1844 1859 1340 834 563 473 458 447 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 29.2 30.2 31.5 32.7 36.0 40.3 45.3 49.3 51.8 53.3 53.9 54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.3 42.7 42.1 41.0 39.9 36.2 31.2 25.6 21.3 18.5 17.1 17.0 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 14 16 19 26 31 29 20 12 5 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 9 12 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 11 CX,CY: 4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -13. -22. -32. -42. -49. -56. -62. -66. -67. -69. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -10. -17. -18. -18. -21. -24. -26. -27. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. -0. -2. 3. -6. -28. -48. -27. -26. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -14. -30. -37. -51. -77.-105. -93. -98.-102.-106.-109. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 28.2 43.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 376.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 10( 29) 10( 36) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 87 86 85 86 86 76 60 53 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 88 87 88 88 78 62 55 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 85 86 86 76 60 53 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 81 81 71 55 48 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 71 61 45 38 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 87 78 72 69 68 58 42 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 87 86 77 71 67 57 41 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS