* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/29/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 96 93 92 92 92 89 78 63 58 41 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 96 93 92 92 92 89 78 63 58 41 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 95 90 88 88 87 84 75 63 50 36 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 21 18 15 13 10 16 38 68 67 53 46 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 3 2 1 2 10 6 10 8 16 12 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 259 257 241 220 237 174 186 199 216 261 287 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 26.3 25.4 23.0 19.4 16.4 15.4 14.4 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 135 135 135 120 113 98 83 75 72 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 118 119 118 119 108 104 90 77 71 68 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.9 -52.3 -52.1 -50.5 -50.8 -54.0 -57.7 -57.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 63 62 60 49 36 27 37 48 63 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 42 44 45 47 47 50 50 48 48 53 46 36 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 32 27 43 44 47 105 149 152 75 -85 42 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 86 45 41 59 102 103 148 97 9 36 29 47 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 27 24 20 21 20 31 27 -3 -37 -10 47 144 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2367 2307 2231 2147 2067 1921 1831 1879 1415 914 473 231 187 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.3 28.1 29.1 30.1 32.5 35.7 39.8 44.0 48.0 51.2 53.7 56.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.4 44.0 43.6 43.0 42.4 40.3 36.8 31.9 26.6 21.4 17.0 13.5 10.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 13 18 25 28 28 24 19 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 10 9 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -17. -29. -40. -52. -61. -68. -75. -78. -80. -81. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -7. -8. -14. -19. -19. -22. -22. -22. -23. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. -2. -3. -1. 0. 3. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. 0. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 3. 10. -1. -16. -26. -26. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -16. -27. -42. -47. -64. -84.-100.-102.-106.-109.-113. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 26.4 44.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.24 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 427.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 14( 37) 13( 45) 13( 52) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 96 93 92 92 92 89 78 63 58 41 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 101 100 100 100 97 86 71 66 49 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 100 100 100 97 86 71 66 49 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 95 95 92 81 66 61 44 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 86 83 72 57 52 35 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 96 87 81 78 77 74 63 48 43 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 96 93 84 78 74 71 60 45 40 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS