* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/29/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 134 126 117 111 104 100 96 78 63 51 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 135 134 126 117 111 104 100 96 78 63 51 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 135 133 125 116 109 101 96 92 82 67 51 34 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 18 21 19 15 12 12 21 40 74 66 61 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 9 4 4 5 4 3 8 11 2 0 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 267 263 264 258 230 231 192 197 205 217 264 288 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 26.5 25.6 23.5 20.0 17.5 15.1 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 136 135 135 135 121 115 101 85 79 74 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 119 118 118 119 108 105 93 79 74 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -53.0 -52.0 -52.1 -51.2 -52.3 -55.3 -56.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 65 63 63 59 46 34 25 36 47 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 40 44 43 44 46 48 48 51 49 52 54 43 34 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 37 42 34 28 51 55 120 134 156 -8 -88 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 83 73 80 56 45 102 113 157 69 0 5 38 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 24 26 22 18 27 27 16 1 -19 -11 -3 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2285 2334 2386 2317 2244 2087 1940 1854 1919 1398 919 301 -87 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.6 26.4 27.2 28.0 29.9 32.2 35.2 38.9 43.0 46.8 50.5 54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.7 44.4 44.2 43.8 43.5 42.4 40.5 37.1 32.1 26.3 20.1 13.8 7.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 9 10 12 17 24 29 29 29 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 15 13 11 9 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -10. -13. -21. -33. -49. -65. -81. -94.-103.-110.-114.-116.-116.-114. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -9. -13. -15. -17. -14. -10. -10. -13. -13. -14. -13. -9. -6. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. 1. 2. -0. -1. -4. -5. -3. -2. -1. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -2. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 11. 8. 12. 14. -2. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -9. -18. -23. -31. -35. -39. -57. -72. -84.-108.-123.-119.-118.-121.-127. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 24.7 44.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 547.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -15.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.1% 8.2% 4.7% 3.0% 1.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 2.8% 1.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 48 40( 69) 29( 78) 26( 84) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 8 1( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 135 134 126 117 111 104 100 96 78 63 51 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 135 134 126 117 111 104 100 96 78 63 51 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 135 132 131 122 116 109 105 101 83 68 56 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 135 129 126 125 119 112 108 104 86 71 59 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 135 126 120 117 116 109 105 101 83 68 56 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 135 134 125 119 116 113 109 105 87 72 60 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 135 134 126 117 111 107 103 99 81 66 54 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS