* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN EP162019 09/29/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 37 39 39 41 43 43 43 42 43 46 49 51 53 52 53 V (KT) LAND 35 37 37 39 39 37 38 38 39 38 38 41 38 33 30 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 38 35 35 32 30 29 28 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 16 18 17 17 13 10 9 6 4 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 6 2 3 0 -2 -1 2 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 59 67 79 88 88 86 96 100 125 92 106 313 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 30.0 29.6 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 161 162 161 161 166 161 165 164 164 163 163 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.6 -52.9 -53.6 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 8 5 6 3 5 3 5 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 80 81 80 79 72 63 52 49 48 48 46 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 10 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 76 75 94 130 94 61 58 30 32 14 10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 105 90 107 125 121 46 54 14 26 16 26 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -15 -14 -14 -12 -4 0 -1 0 0 -1 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 192 143 108 33 10 61 128 90 61 25 16 28 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 16.0 16.8 17.8 18.8 20.8 22.7 24.2 25.0 25.5 26.0 26.5 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.3 101.1 102.0 103.1 104.1 106.1 107.6 108.6 109.0 109.3 109.5 109.8 110.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 13 14 14 13 10 6 4 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 22 23 21 23 30 21 27 30 32 33 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 34. 37. 40. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 17. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.1 100.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162019 SIXTEEN 09/29/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.82 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.10 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.74 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 24.4% 20.7% 15.3% 10.8% 18.1% 17.1% 35.8% Logistic: 2.2% 14.6% 4.5% 2.7% 0.5% 7.6% 5.4% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 7.0% 4.8% 1.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% Consensus: 4.3% 15.4% 10.0% 6.5% 3.8% 8.8% 7.6% 12.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162019 SIXTEEN 09/29/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##