* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/29/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 131 125 116 110 100 99 95 83 65 47 46 21 25 26 23 18 V (KT) LAND 130 131 125 116 110 100 99 95 83 65 47 46 21 25 26 23 18 V (KT) LGEM 130 130 123 115 109 101 96 91 83 68 55 44 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 10 17 22 20 16 16 13 28 45 63 54 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 11 9 2 0 1 1 6 13 10 5 1 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 286 263 258 269 232 238 187 181 192 215 245 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.4 26.3 24.9 22.5 18.5 17.2 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 135 135 135 134 130 120 110 95 81 78 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 119 119 119 118 117 115 109 101 88 76 73 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.0 -51.9 -52.6 -54.6 -56.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.0 1.6 1.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 66 66 67 64 61 60 52 38 31 26 31 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 40 42 41 44 46 48 49 49 46 43 48 33 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 42 41 43 33 47 69 106 120 118 100 -16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 72 64 85 49 70 98 141 134 19 15 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 16 25 28 18 18 30 16 16 0 -41 -2 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2229 2273 2318 2370 2310 2157 2002 1868 1854 1703 1142 675 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.7 25.5 26.4 27.2 28.9 30.9 33.5 36.8 40.6 44.1 47.4 50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.0 44.8 44.6 44.4 44.1 43.3 42.0 39.5 35.1 29.4 23.2 16.5 9.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 14 21 27 29 29 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 15 14 13 11 9 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -19. -30. -45. -59. -73. -84. -93.-100.-104.-106.-106.-105. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -11. -14. -17. -15. -10. -7. -7. -8. -10. -9. -5. -3. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. 2. 2. 0. -1. -5. -6. -4. -2. -1. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 5. 1. 7. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -5. -14. -20. -30. -31. -35. -47. -65. -83. -84.-109.-105.-104.-107.-112. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 23.8 45.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 539.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -10.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.4% 11.2% 6.6% 3.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 3.8% 2.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/29/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 38( 65) 29( 75) 22( 80) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 1( 6) 0( 6) 0( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 131 125 116 110 100 99 95 83 65 47 46 21 25 26 23 18 18HR AGO 130 129 123 114 108 98 97 93 81 63 45 44 19 23 24 21 16 12HR AGO 130 127 126 117 111 101 100 96 84 66 48 47 22 26 27 24 19 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 114 104 103 99 87 69 51 50 25 29 30 27 22 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 101 100 96 84 66 48 47 22 26 27 24 19 IN 6HR 130 131 122 116 113 108 107 103 91 73 55 54 29 33 34 31 26 IN 12HR 130 131 125 116 110 106 105 101 89 71 53 52 27 31 32 29 24