* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN EP162019 09/28/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 38 38 39 39 40 41 42 42 44 47 49 50 49 47 46 V (KT) LAND 35 38 38 38 39 33 36 37 38 39 41 44 33 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 37 37 37 32 34 33 30 29 29 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 19 21 19 15 15 16 13 11 8 8 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 7 3 3 4 0 0 -3 4 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 68 66 71 89 91 100 95 109 168 160 201 231 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.3 29.8 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 161 162 162 166 164 164 163 163 166 161 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 8 7 7 4 4 3 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 79 79 80 80 72 62 50 42 40 39 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 12 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 82 80 86 92 120 58 75 34 42 22 33 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 138 129 99 106 105 76 39 49 13 33 17 31 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -13 -16 -11 -11 -3 0 0 0 2 0 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 216 180 143 111 42 -7 128 107 69 83 37 11 -66 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.4 16.1 17.0 17.9 20.1 22.3 24.3 25.5 26.1 26.9 27.9 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.7 100.6 101.5 102.5 103.4 105.4 107.2 108.9 110.0 110.3 110.5 110.8 111.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 12 13 13 14 13 10 5 4 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 22 22 23 22 32 23 25 35 35 36 28 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 34. 37. 40. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 14. 12. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.6 99.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162019 SIXTEEN 09/28/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.81 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.01 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.77 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 24.8% 20.4% 15.0% 10.6% 18.2% 0.0% 34.1% Logistic: 1.3% 10.3% 3.1% 1.8% 0.4% 6.7% 6.5% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 3.8% 13.4% 8.4% 5.7% 3.7% 8.3% 2.2% 11.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162019 SIXTEEN 09/28/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##