* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/28/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 93 90 88 82 85 84 86 82 71 56 51 33 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 96 93 90 88 82 85 84 86 82 71 56 51 33 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 97 94 91 89 86 86 87 86 79 65 52 44 35 30 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 19 20 16 16 12 15 18 28 42 50 57 43 51 53 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 7 5 8 4 0 2 2 9 6 8 7 11 4 14 22 SHEAR DIR 294 284 286 278 270 269 230 244 223 203 194 210 230 275 276 268 237 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.4 26.5 24.9 22.4 17.2 15.8 14.9 15.3 16.8 9.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 135 133 135 135 134 131 123 110 95 78 74 71 70 72 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 122 120 118 119 118 118 116 111 101 89 74 70 67 66 66 63 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -51.6 -52.5 -55.4 -56.8 -54.3 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.4 2.1 1.2 1.4 1.9 0.3 -0.7 -0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 60 62 67 68 67 65 62 59 44 39 45 44 54 61 70 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 39 39 40 41 47 47 49 49 46 41 44 34 23 9 3 850 MB ENV VOR 37 31 25 29 35 29 50 55 96 78 51 75 118 129 59 39 -7 200 MB DIV 53 39 16 40 65 52 45 73 136 154 85 53 63 38 59 63 98 700-850 TADV 15 14 13 21 18 19 17 34 23 -12 -46 43 -18 97 92 20 -48 LAND (KM) 2072 2162 2251 2307 2344 2343 2182 2037 1925 1908 1656 1097 537 84 -16 -78 7 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.9 23.8 24.6 25.4 27.0 28.8 30.8 33.4 36.7 40.8 45.6 49.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.6 44.6 44.6 44.4 44.3 43.7 42.9 41.4 38.6 34.4 28.9 22.4 16.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 9 11 15 21 27 32 30 24 18 14 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 36 29 19 15 14 11 9 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -21. -28. -35. -41. -47. -54. -61. -65. -69. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -10. -6. -4. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -14. -18. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 8. 9. 12. 12. 7. -0. 2. -12. -26. -41. -46. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -12. -18. -15. -16. -14. -18. -29. -44. -49. -67. -87.-110.-125. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 22.0 44.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 432.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 2.5% 1.2% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 14( 33) 11( 40) 8( 45) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 0( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 96 93 90 88 82 85 84 86 82 71 56 51 33 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 96 93 91 85 88 87 89 85 74 59 54 36 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 93 91 85 88 87 89 85 74 59 54 36 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 88 82 85 84 86 82 71 56 51 33 DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 75 78 77 79 75 64 49 44 26 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 96 87 81 78 73 76 75 77 73 62 47 42 24 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 96 93 84 78 74 77 76 78 74 63 48 43 25 DIS DIS DIS