* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/28/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 92 89 86 81 80 81 83 83 76 61 52 46 28 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 96 92 89 86 81 80 81 83 83 76 61 52 46 28 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 95 91 89 87 84 84 86 87 84 73 57 47 41 33 28 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 19 19 21 19 18 10 10 16 18 35 46 43 53 43 49 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 5 6 7 6 3 0 0 8 3 9 18 9 14 3 9 SHEAR DIR 272 288 291 289 280 266 239 222 233 198 202 189 225 263 291 291 277 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 26.8 25.7 23.6 20.0 16.9 15.4 14.7 14.7 13.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 133 135 135 135 135 135 125 116 101 85 76 73 71 71 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 119 120 121 120 119 119 120 112 106 93 79 72 69 68 67 66 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -54.1 -57.5 -57.6 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.4 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.4 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 63 67 69 67 64 64 51 42 40 41 48 61 61 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 36 38 39 41 44 46 48 50 48 42 42 42 33 17 5 850 MB ENV VOR 42 37 34 33 35 43 41 61 47 104 63 53 94 94 43 -7 -46 200 MB DIV 35 43 36 21 39 76 31 47 91 170 109 51 60 45 38 24 61 700-850 TADV 9 12 15 13 20 20 15 26 30 13 -46 -35 -58 131 87 102 139 LAND (KM) 1963 2037 2113 2207 2284 2379 2290 2136 1998 1916 1952 1399 989 523 130 -36 100 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.7 22.5 23.4 24.3 25.9 27.6 29.5 31.9 34.9 38.6 42.9 46.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.6 44.7 44.8 44.7 44.6 44.1 43.4 42.2 39.9 36.5 31.9 26.3 21.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 13 18 24 28 28 24 21 19 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 30 34 36 23 16 14 10 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -13. -20. -27. -33. -39. -45. -52. -58. -63. -67. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -10. -6. -3. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 9. -0. -2. -1. -13. -32. -44. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -14. -19. -20. -19. -17. -17. -24. -39. -48. -54. -72. -97.-116. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 20.9 44.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 448.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 2.3% 1.4% 1.9% 1.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/28/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 13( 32) 10( 39) 8( 44) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 12 3( 15) 0( 15) 0( 15) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 96 92 89 86 81 80 81 83 83 76 61 52 46 28 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 95 92 89 84 83 84 86 86 79 64 55 49 31 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 93 90 85 84 85 87 87 80 65 56 50 32 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 87 82 81 82 84 84 77 62 53 47 29 DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 76 75 76 78 78 71 56 47 41 23 DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 96 87 81 78 75 74 75 77 77 70 55 46 40 22 DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 96 92 83 77 73 72 73 75 75 68 53 44 38 20 DIS DIS