* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/27/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 104 100 94 89 81 81 77 79 75 77 69 55 52 52 31 21 V (KT) LAND 110 104 100 94 89 81 81 77 79 75 77 69 55 52 52 31 21 V (KT) LGEM 110 102 96 91 87 85 86 87 86 81 76 66 54 50 46 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 18 23 22 20 14 13 17 23 24 38 63 40 18 19 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 3 2 1 5 9 3 0 -3 3 1 4 11 10 10 11 SHEAR DIR 249 282 290 286 286 282 256 241 241 239 200 195 184 187 242 243 151 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.2 26.3 24.9 22.5 18.6 15.7 14.4 13.5 12.4 POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 132 133 133 132 135 137 128 120 109 94 80 74 69 67 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 121 120 120 117 119 122 114 107 99 86 75 70 66 64 63 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -50.8 -49.4 -49.9 -48.0 -46.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.9 2.0 3.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 61 60 61 64 68 69 67 63 64 53 47 44 60 69 71 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 41 39 39 38 38 39 45 46 49 48 51 48 45 48 53 40 36 850 MB ENV VOR 66 61 37 30 34 32 45 39 58 53 118 94 125 219 287 292 348 200 MB DIV 98 71 33 34 28 30 82 40 73 102 178 93 56 53 59 56 45 700-850 TADV 13 15 17 23 20 23 17 19 27 29 -12 -82 -164 -58 127 63 -1 LAND (KM) 1926 1991 2061 2140 2220 2381 2394 2236 2086 1962 1890 1820 1448 969 757 695 728 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.7 21.6 22.5 23.3 25.0 26.7 28.6 30.8 33.3 36.5 40.5 45.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.3 43.6 44.0 44.1 44.2 43.8 43.1 42.0 40.3 38.1 34.9 30.8 27.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 12 14 18 23 26 26 22 15 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 28 35 37 34 22 13 11 10 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -18. -27. -35. -44. -50. -56. -63. -70. -75. -79. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. -13. -9. -6. -4. -2. -2. -5. -5. -4. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. -12. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 2. 3. 7. 6. 8. 4. -2. 2. 8. -9. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -16. -21. -29. -29. -33. -31. -35. -33. -41. -55. -58. -58. -79. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 19.8 43.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 458.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 22( 45) 11( 51) 8( 55) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 10 13( 22) 1( 22) 0( 22) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 104 100 94 89 81 81 77 79 75 77 69 55 52 52 31 21 18HR AGO 110 109 105 99 94 86 86 82 84 80 82 74 60 57 57 36 26 12HR AGO 110 107 106 100 95 87 87 83 85 81 83 75 61 58 58 37 27 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 95 87 87 83 85 81 83 75 61 58 58 37 27 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 83 83 79 81 77 79 71 57 54 54 33 23 IN 6HR 110 104 95 89 86 81 81 77 79 75 77 69 55 52 52 31 21 IN 12HR 110 104 100 91 85 81 81 77 79 75 77 69 55 52 52 31 21