* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/26/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 119 118 113 108 96 85 79 73 71 71 70 67 60 54 45 34 V (KT) LAND 115 119 118 113 108 96 85 79 73 71 71 70 67 60 54 45 34 V (KT) LGEM 115 118 114 107 101 90 84 82 80 79 82 83 76 65 55 47 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 10 10 11 21 24 15 17 10 7 9 23 39 51 44 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 7 8 6 1 1 10 9 5 6 4 12 3 9 18 13 SHEAR DIR 246 231 245 246 283 288 286 278 250 219 216 202 170 187 204 234 236 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.4 26.7 25.1 23.0 18.7 15.6 12.3 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 127 127 128 129 135 135 137 137 131 124 110 97 81 76 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 119 118 119 118 121 120 122 122 116 111 99 89 76 73 70 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.8 -52.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -51.7 -51.6 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.6 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.5 0.7 2.2 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 71 68 65 64 60 62 67 70 68 66 61 44 34 35 54 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 36 39 38 38 39 37 39 40 43 46 47 45 41 40 38 33 850 MB ENV VOR 66 60 50 54 63 47 41 47 46 34 51 72 142 128 127 162 163 200 MB DIV 169 154 121 99 93 24 31 51 80 58 92 105 92 46 37 77 55 700-850 TADV 7 10 9 9 11 16 18 22 33 19 33 30 34 -79 -30 60 57 LAND (KM) 1769 1790 1812 1855 1903 2023 2169 2352 2474 2317 2164 2023 1930 1888 1502 985 731 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.7 17.5 18.4 19.3 21.0 22.6 24.3 26.1 28.0 30.2 32.8 35.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.5 41.2 41.9 42.4 42.9 43.6 43.8 43.5 42.6 41.5 39.9 37.8 35.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 8 9 9 10 12 15 18 22 26 29 32 31 HEAT CONTENT 14 10 8 9 13 26 34 15 14 11 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -20. -31. -39. -47. -52. -56. -61. -67. -72. -76. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -7. -5. -1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -3. -2. -0. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -2. -1. 0. 3. 6. 7. 3. -3. -5. -7. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 3. -2. -7. -19. -30. -36. -42. -44. -44. -45. -48. -55. -61. -70. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 15.9 40.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 384.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 19.6% 11.6% 5.8% 4.0% 1.0% 1.5% 1.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 18.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.8% 4.0% 2.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/19 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 32( 53) 28( 66) 19( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 54 16( 61) 3( 63) 26( 72) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 119 118 113 108 96 85 79 73 71 71 70 67 60 54 45 34 18HR AGO 115 114 113 108 103 91 80 74 68 66 66 65 62 55 49 40 29 12HR AGO 115 112 111 106 101 89 78 72 66 64 64 63 60 53 47 38 27 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 100 88 77 71 65 63 63 62 59 52 46 37 26 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 84 73 67 61 59 59 58 55 48 42 33 22 IN 6HR 115 119 110 104 101 95 84 78 72 70 70 69 66 59 53 44 33 IN 12HR 115 119 118 109 103 99 88 82 76 74 74 73 70 63 57 48 37