* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/26/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 89 93 95 98 94 85 80 77 74 75 77 79 76 70 67 54 V (KT) LAND 85 89 93 95 98 94 85 80 77 74 75 77 79 76 70 67 54 V (KT) LGEM 85 87 89 91 91 87 81 79 79 78 80 84 84 76 65 55 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 0 2 2 7 11 17 18 16 12 11 12 17 27 48 41 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 8 10 7 8 1 1 11 9 3 5 1 12 1 13 17 SHEAR DIR 316 359 56 227 217 273 283 267 265 219 213 203 200 177 205 245 247 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.5 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.2 27.4 26.6 24.9 22.7 18.9 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 129 128 126 128 130 136 135 137 140 131 122 108 95 82 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 125 123 121 119 119 118 123 121 122 124 116 109 97 87 76 71 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -51.7 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 2.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.9 1.3 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 69 70 69 68 62 61 62 66 70 68 65 63 45 28 38 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 37 37 39 39 36 36 38 39 41 44 46 46 46 48 42 850 MB ENV VOR 69 61 69 71 61 69 60 60 57 68 47 59 81 143 155 139 211 200 MB DIV 83 95 134 120 95 77 23 49 35 74 43 108 107 105 26 15 55 700-850 TADV 1 4 4 7 9 12 15 16 27 28 21 29 24 13 -105 80 152 LAND (KM) 1812 1787 1770 1795 1820 1906 2022 2189 2372 2422 2258 2105 1978 1899 1838 1540 1086 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.8 17.6 19.4 21.1 22.9 24.6 26.5 28.5 30.7 33.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.8 39.7 40.6 41.3 41.9 43.0 43.8 44.0 43.7 42.9 41.7 40.1 37.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 12 15 17 21 26 28 27 HEAT CONTENT 25 18 13 9 8 14 28 29 16 12 12 9 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -24. -28. -31. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 5. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 5. 4. 5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 13. 9. 0. -5. -8. -11. -10. -8. -6. -9. -15. -18. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 14.8 38.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.97 6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.99 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.10 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.62 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.81 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.1% 37.2% 31.0% 20.9% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 18.5% 26.4% 15.9% 13.5% 7.8% 6.7% 2.9% 0.4% Bayesian: 21.4% 11.5% 9.4% 3.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 19.3% 25.0% 18.8% 12.6% 7.7% 2.5% 1.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 14( 23) 21( 39) 16( 49) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 20 5( 24) 1( 25) 1( 26) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 89 93 95 98 94 85 80 77 74 75 77 79 76 70 67 54 18HR AGO 85 84 88 90 93 89 80 75 72 69 70 72 74 71 65 62 49 12HR AGO 85 82 81 83 86 82 73 68 65 62 63 65 67 64 58 55 42 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 78 74 65 60 57 54 55 57 59 56 50 47 34 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 62 53 48 45 42 43 45 47 44 38 35 22 IN 6HR 85 89 80 74 71 69 60 55 52 49 50 52 54 51 45 42 29 IN 12HR 85 89 93 84 78 74 65 60 57 54 55 57 59 56 50 47 34