* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/26/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 90 94 97 98 95 90 86 81 79 80 83 83 82 76 73 75 V (KT) LAND 85 90 94 97 98 95 90 86 81 79 80 83 83 82 76 73 75 V (KT) LGEM 85 89 92 94 94 90 84 81 79 78 81 86 86 79 70 63 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 3 2 5 10 12 21 15 11 12 14 16 20 37 56 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 9 9 7 1 -2 5 7 7 1 6 4 10 21 9 SHEAR DIR 283 297 258 187 214 240 266 274 261 225 226 190 202 180 189 216 230 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.4 27.6 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.8 26.8 26.0 23.8 21.0 16.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 138 137 135 129 131 135 135 137 137 135 124 117 101 88 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 133 131 129 121 121 122 120 122 123 120 110 104 92 81 72 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -51.0 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.2 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.5 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 7 6 4 3 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 71 70 65 61 60 64 69 70 67 62 55 38 32 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 35 36 36 36 35 36 35 37 40 43 45 47 45 48 55 850 MB ENV VOR 81 61 52 63 72 67 79 57 55 63 57 56 52 101 152 220 196 200 MB DIV 101 82 73 116 112 86 47 38 34 47 55 82 111 152 71 45 52 700-850 TADV 0 1 5 7 6 9 14 13 13 23 19 18 19 6 -8 10 71 LAND (KM) 1891 1835 1787 1789 1798 1848 1961 2095 2260 2396 2321 2152 2019 1948 1856 1772 1358 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.0 15.4 16.1 16.8 18.4 20.3 22.0 23.7 25.5 27.5 29.7 32.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.6 38.6 39.7 40.4 41.2 42.5 43.5 44.1 44.2 43.8 42.8 41.3 39.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 10 11 10 9 9 10 12 14 15 18 24 26 26 HEAT CONTENT 23 28 24 19 15 11 25 44 20 15 10 9 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -18. -21. -25. -28. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 7. 3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -0. 3. 7. 8. 9. 6. 8. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 13. 10. 5. 1. -4. -6. -5. -2. -2. -3. -9. -12. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 14.5 37.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.95 6.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.18 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.58 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.91 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.1% 41.8% 34.5% 22.5% 15.1% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.9% 31.7% 18.9% 12.0% 7.0% 6.7% 2.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 23.9% 35.9% 17.6% 6.1% 3.7% 2.2% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 20.3% 36.4% 23.7% 13.5% 8.6% 8.3% 1.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/26/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 16( 24) 21( 40) 17( 50) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 18 18( 33) 5( 36) 0( 36) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 90 94 97 98 95 90 86 81 79 80 83 83 82 76 73 75 18HR AGO 85 84 88 91 92 89 84 80 75 73 74 77 77 76 70 67 69 12HR AGO 85 82 81 84 85 82 77 73 68 66 67 70 70 69 63 60 62 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 76 73 68 64 59 57 58 61 61 60 54 51 53 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 63 58 54 49 47 48 51 51 50 44 41 43 IN 6HR 85 90 81 75 72 69 64 60 55 53 54 57 57 56 50 47 49 IN 12HR 85 90 94 85 79 75 70 66 61 59 60 63 63 62 56 53 55