* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/26/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 37 40 44 47 48 49 52 52 52 49 46 46 46 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 37 40 44 47 48 49 52 52 52 49 46 46 46 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 33 34 35 37 38 38 38 38 38 37 35 32 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 16 14 10 16 16 24 22 20 22 30 36 37 34 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -2 -5 -2 -5 -4 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 51 33 20 24 14 346 350 351 352 323 274 262 250 256 252 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.6 28.8 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 155 151 150 151 149 151 155 149 149 151 144 148 143 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 138 132 130 127 123 124 131 129 129 132 126 130 126 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 69 65 64 61 53 48 42 38 35 40 44 53 61 63 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 8 9 9 8 7 9 8 9 8 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -11 -9 -10 -5 4 0 -5 1 0 31 25 26 12 11 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 16 16 30 29 -8 -19 -25 -27 -8 -13 11 13 4 12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 0 6 4 3 3 0 2 1 1 1 0 5 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 631 755 878 969 1060 1183 1225 1210 1138 1024 945 869 763 704 656 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.8 25.9 26.6 27.3 28.1 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.8 63.4 63.0 62.5 62.0 61.0 60.3 60.2 60.9 62.4 64.0 65.7 67.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 8 7 5 2 2 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 37 37 39 45 49 46 48 57 39 32 43 29 38 36 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 14 CX,CY: 5/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -16. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 14. 17. 17. 17. 14. 11. 11. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.8 63.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/26/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.55 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.66 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 13.8% 8.8% 6.0% 5.4% 8.0% 9.5% 10.1% Logistic: 3.7% 14.3% 7.9% 3.6% 1.7% 5.1% 5.1% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 9.8% 5.7% 3.2% 2.4% 4.4% 4.9% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/26/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/26/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 36 37 40 44 47 48 49 52 52 52 49 46 46 46 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 36 39 43 46 47 48 51 51 51 48 45 45 45 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 35 39 42 43 44 47 47 47 44 41 41 41 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 33 36 37 38 41 41 41 38 35 35 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT