* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/25/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 90 93 95 92 89 88 84 82 83 83 85 86 82 76 65 V (KT) LAND 80 84 90 93 95 92 89 88 84 82 83 83 85 86 82 76 65 V (KT) LGEM 80 84 88 92 93 91 84 80 79 79 81 84 85 84 78 64 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 13 8 13 18 17 14 8 11 17 34 60 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 2 2 6 6 3 -1 -3 1 2 6 3 4 13 9 9 SHEAR DIR 263 283 287 229 221 213 237 248 263 250 230 203 208 200 197 212 221 SST (C) 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.6 26.6 25.8 23.9 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 137 139 137 137 132 130 134 135 135 137 137 132 122 115 100 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 135 132 131 124 121 122 121 119 122 121 116 107 102 90 82 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -52.9 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 70 71 68 62 61 59 65 67 66 61 56 46 34 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 34 34 36 35 35 36 35 37 39 41 43 45 45 46 42 850 MB ENV VOR 78 71 55 54 62 62 74 73 64 75 94 87 88 94 130 57 -53 200 MB DIV 104 103 88 101 118 70 72 11 29 37 68 64 103 81 82 -7 0 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 6 7 5 8 10 11 12 13 18 20 9 -4 -75 8 LAND (KM) 1955 1917 1850 1818 1794 1830 1898 2007 2153 2257 2369 2237 2089 1974 1884 1850 1834 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.7 16.2 17.8 19.5 21.2 22.9 24.4 26.2 28.2 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.3 37.4 38.6 39.6 40.5 42.0 43.3 44.3 44.8 44.9 44.3 43.1 41.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 11 10 11 10 9 8 8 10 12 12 15 18 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 12 22 28 22 18 11 18 34 36 17 15 10 8 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -18. -21. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 5. 6. 9. 11. 9. 9. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 13. 15. 12. 9. 8. 4. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 2. -4. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.3 36.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/25/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 10.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.88 5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.23 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.61 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.8% 38.6% 31.5% 22.0% 13.9% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.9% 25.0% 13.9% 9.7% 4.8% 5.8% 1.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 31.2% 22.5% 14.3% 5.2% 5.6% 3.1% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 21.3% 28.7% 19.9% 12.3% 8.1% 8.1% 0.8% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/25/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/25/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 12( 18) 17( 32) 13( 41) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 19( 21) 4( 25) 1( 25) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 84 90 93 95 92 89 88 84 82 83 83 85 86 82 76 65 18HR AGO 80 79 85 88 90 87 84 83 79 77 78 78 80 81 77 71 60 12HR AGO 80 77 76 79 81 78 75 74 70 68 69 69 71 72 68 62 51 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 72 69 66 65 61 59 60 60 62 63 59 53 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 84 75 69 66 61 58 57 53 51 52 52 54 55 51 45 34 IN 12HR 80 84 90 81 75 71 68 67 63 61 62 62 64 65 61 55 44