* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/25/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 41 41 44 47 51 55 58 59 63 64 63 60 56 56 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 41 41 44 47 51 55 58 59 63 64 63 60 56 56 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 41 42 43 46 50 53 54 56 57 57 55 51 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 18 14 13 9 9 10 14 16 18 11 22 28 38 33 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 0 -6 -1 -1 -1 1 -2 -1 -5 -5 -4 -7 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 32 45 63 70 47 42 346 17 357 4 345 323 264 250 257 268 270 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.0 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.2 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 159 149 151 157 151 145 148 151 152 150 155 146 148 146 136 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 150 139 139 143 131 121 122 125 127 129 136 129 130 129 119 116 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 69 69 67 66 66 61 56 52 49 47 44 44 48 52 58 57 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -15 -20 -12 -15 -8 2 0 6 14 18 30 17 12 17 1 15 200 MB DIV 35 27 39 21 13 11 0 5 -14 -4 -20 8 -3 3 13 -11 -29 700-850 TADV 2 6 -1 -1 -3 3 -1 1 0 0 -1 1 1 2 2 3 -2 LAND (KM) 182 310 440 570 701 924 1041 1060 1038 1014 955 886 779 700 668 616 544 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 21.1 22.2 23.4 24.5 26.4 27.3 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.1 64.8 64.5 64.2 63.9 63.2 62.5 62.0 61.8 61.9 62.9 64.8 66.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 8 3 2 2 3 6 9 9 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 68 68 44 32 34 34 37 45 49 47 35 40 32 33 42 23 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 14 CX,CY: 0/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 23. 24. 23. 21. 16. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.9 65.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/25/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.55 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.21 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.69 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 14.4% 9.2% 6.2% 5.5% 8.5% 11.4% 14.9% Logistic: 2.6% 12.3% 5.2% 2.4% 1.8% 7.4% 15.1% 8.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 6.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 1.9% 0.1% Consensus: 2.7% 10.9% 5.2% 2.9% 2.4% 5.6% 9.5% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/25/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/25/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 41 41 41 44 47 51 55 58 59 63 64 63 60 56 56 18HR AGO 40 39 40 40 40 43 46 50 54 57 58 62 63 62 59 55 55 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 39 42 46 50 53 54 58 59 58 55 51 51 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 33 36 40 44 47 48 52 53 52 49 45 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT