* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/25/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 77 82 92 92 95 94 93 90 86 83 83 83 82 79 V (KT) LAND 60 65 70 77 82 92 92 95 94 93 90 86 83 83 83 82 79 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 67 71 77 86 90 90 87 84 84 81 78 76 77 76 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 10 8 4 2 5 9 12 17 21 24 21 22 17 20 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 4 1 3 6 9 2 -4 -2 1 -1 2 -2 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 289 341 17 11 348 218 260 251 270 272 260 259 248 234 229 223 226 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.4 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 137 137 136 133 132 133 134 135 137 137 136 136 136 129 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 141 136 135 134 128 125 125 125 122 123 121 119 119 119 112 98 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.1 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 5 4 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 71 71 72 70 66 61 60 64 63 59 55 51 45 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 31 32 33 37 36 39 38 39 40 41 41 44 46 47 48 850 MB ENV VOR 84 84 79 72 72 71 79 75 83 76 92 113 115 129 140 154 93 200 MB DIV 121 122 104 103 95 108 124 74 56 41 25 53 49 56 55 68 2 700-850 TADV 3 -1 -4 -2 3 4 7 7 12 7 12 12 12 13 11 14 -11 LAND (KM) 1545 1679 1815 1935 1938 1818 1799 1842 1905 1992 2114 2212 2292 2334 2213 2085 1964 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.3 15.2 16.5 18.1 19.7 21.2 22.7 24.2 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.7 33.0 34.3 35.6 36.9 39.1 40.8 42.2 43.5 44.6 45.2 45.3 44.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 8 8 7 8 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 16 13 15 22 14 13 26 36 46 20 16 13 10 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 10. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 22. 32. 32. 35. 34. 33. 30. 26. 23. 23. 23. 22. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 13.0 31.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/25/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.79 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.45 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.64 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 44.1% 31.7% 21.0% 13.7% 28.8% 24.4% 22.4% Logistic: 7.6% 25.7% 11.8% 8.6% 5.9% 12.2% 7.8% 2.5% Bayesian: 12.2% 39.8% 19.4% 4.5% 2.6% 17.1% 8.9% 0.6% Consensus: 10.2% 36.5% 21.0% 11.4% 7.4% 19.4% 13.7% 8.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/25/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 8( 12) 13( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 7( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 65 70 77 82 92 92 95 94 93 90 86 83 83 83 82 79 18HR AGO 60 59 64 71 76 86 86 89 88 87 84 80 77 77 77 76 73 12HR AGO 60 57 56 63 68 78 78 81 80 79 76 72 69 69 69 68 65 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 55 65 65 68 67 66 63 59 56 56 56 55 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT