* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/24/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 61 64 68 74 79 80 84 86 82 82 83 80 81 80 78 V (KT) LAND 55 57 61 64 68 74 79 80 84 86 82 82 83 80 81 80 78 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 58 60 62 69 75 77 78 77 76 75 74 72 72 73 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 14 9 7 7 9 6 12 18 22 24 24 22 22 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 1 0 3 7 4 2 0 0 0 -1 -6 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 277 307 339 346 349 288 269 247 207 259 269 258 257 248 243 237 229 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.9 28.1 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 141 137 136 139 130 131 134 135 134 137 135 135 135 135 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 141 136 135 135 125 124 125 124 121 122 119 118 116 116 113 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.8 -53.1 -53.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 70 70 70 70 71 70 71 69 64 61 61 65 62 59 56 54 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 29 29 31 33 34 34 36 37 35 36 39 40 43 45 47 850 MB ENV VOR 67 78 77 70 66 70 73 63 70 70 66 84 92 98 95 107 136 200 MB DIV 131 100 79 61 75 92 122 71 70 38 30 27 60 66 86 69 72 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -1 2 8 7 7 12 9 6 18 16 12 14 9 4 LAND (KM) 1403 1540 1679 1814 1940 1871 1789 1813 1864 1944 2038 2158 2223 2321 2340 2268 2188 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.7 15.7 17.2 18.8 20.4 21.8 23.2 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.3 31.6 33.0 34.3 35.6 38.0 40.0 41.5 42.8 44.0 44.9 45.3 45.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 16 16 13 26 19 12 16 31 44 35 18 16 13 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 8. 5. 7. 9. 9. 12. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 19. 24. 26. 29. 31. 27. 27. 28. 25. 26. 25. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.6 30.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/24/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.65 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.51 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.55 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 25.0% 12.6% 8.3% 7.7% 15.5% 13.6% 15.6% Logistic: 5.3% 16.2% 7.4% 4.8% 3.2% 7.5% 4.1% 1.8% Bayesian: 3.2% 14.5% 5.8% 1.1% 0.7% 4.7% 1.9% 0.7% Consensus: 5.1% 18.6% 8.6% 4.7% 3.9% 9.2% 6.6% 6.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/24/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 8( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 61 64 68 74 79 80 84 86 82 82 83 80 81 80 78 18HR AGO 55 54 58 61 65 71 76 77 81 83 79 79 80 77 78 77 75 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 58 64 69 70 74 76 72 72 73 70 71 70 68 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 55 60 61 65 67 63 63 64 61 62 61 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT