* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/24/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 31 28 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 35 31 28 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 35 31 26 23 19 17 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 35 29 24 25 29 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 0 0 -2 -5 -5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 209 205 203 206 224 246 258 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.9 27.7 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 132 130 128 127 131 140 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 58 56 51 47 40 36 34 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 10 8 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 44 20 3 4 23 12 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 84 85 70 73 32 29 31 8 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 3 2 3 2 0 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1729 1641 1555 1479 1403 1288 1174 1054 938 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.3 19.1 18.6 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.5 139.3 140.0 140.7 141.4 142.5 143.6 144.8 146.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 5 4 2 2 3 8 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -19. -22. -23. -24. -24. -25. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -16. -20. -26. -31. -33. -36. -39. -40. -41. -41. -41. -42. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.6 138.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/24/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.69 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/24/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##