* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/24/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 46 45 43 39 38 34 30 23 20 18 17 16 17 18 V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 46 45 43 39 38 34 30 23 20 18 17 16 17 18 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 45 44 44 43 42 42 41 39 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 12 5 14 17 18 28 21 31 28 30 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 -2 0 0 4 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 263 274 259 288 269 278 259 278 295 308 325 307 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.9 27.4 27.2 25.8 25.5 26.1 26.2 25.9 26.2 26.3 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 123 122 128 126 113 110 115 115 112 115 115 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 104 103 109 108 98 96 98 98 94 96 96 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -54.4 -55.1 -55.8 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 58 61 60 55 52 49 46 46 47 46 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 20 18 16 13 11 10 8 7 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 6 17 28 40 47 21 20 19 0 -34 -44 -77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 21 36 32 31 22 18 38 31 0 -50 -10 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 1 4 4 -10 0 -4 8 -9 5 -2 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 960 929 898 916 941 1101 1130 1168 1220 1286 1326 1397 1477 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.2 30.8 31.4 31.9 32.9 33.9 34.6 35.0 35.1 34.8 34.3 33.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.4 68.2 68.0 67.3 66.6 64.2 61.2 58.3 55.9 53.8 52.0 50.4 48.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 12 13 11 10 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 7 7 16 17 0 0 1 3 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -19. -23. -26. -30. -32. -34. -33. -32. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -12. -16. -20. -27. -30. -32. -33. -34. -33. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 29.5 68.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/24/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.57 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.26 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.40 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 12.3% 8.1% 5.7% 0.0% 7.6% 8.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 8.4% 5.3% 0.8% 0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.9% 4.5% 2.1% 0.1% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/24/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/24/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 48 46 45 43 39 38 34 30 23 20 18 17 16 17 18 18HR AGO 50 49 48 46 45 43 39 38 34 30 23 20 18 17 16 17 18 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 43 41 37 36 32 28 21 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 37 33 32 28 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT