* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/24/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 46 42 35 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 46 42 35 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 49 46 42 34 28 23 21 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 24 29 33 30 27 27 22 18 13 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 3 1 0 1 -2 -5 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 189 192 206 208 211 218 222 245 258 293 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 131 131 131 127 127 127 130 133 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 60 56 54 47 43 40 37 39 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 12 10 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 70 55 36 18 0 18 18 4 4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 41 70 64 52 41 13 10 9 -7 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 12 11 8 4 0 0 0 -1 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1886 1805 1725 1649 1574 1434 1297 1171 1077 1004 932 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.5 19.7 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.2 137.9 138.5 139.2 139.8 141.1 142.4 143.6 144.5 145.2 145.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 19 7 4 3 1 2 3 7 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. -18. -19. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -15. -19. -19. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -8. -15. -23. -30. -35. -37. -35. -36. -35. -36. -36. -37. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.6 137.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/24/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.46 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/24/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##