* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/23/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 57 56 53 45 36 27 21 19 20 19 20 19 19 17 16 V (KT) LAND 50 55 57 56 53 45 36 27 21 19 20 19 20 19 19 17 16 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 57 56 53 44 35 29 25 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 13 21 24 30 25 25 26 19 16 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 4 3 -2 0 -2 0 -6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 180 193 206 208 220 219 235 263 283 309 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 135 134 131 129 127 126 129 133 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 60 61 61 60 53 46 42 39 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 12 10 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 62 59 41 34 1 10 14 10 4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 67 51 59 57 49 15 4 9 6 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 4 12 12 10 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2014 1926 1840 1749 1659 1521 1382 1245 1141 1069 987 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.4 18.0 19.0 19.4 19.5 19.3 19.1 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.2 136.9 137.6 138.3 139.1 140.3 141.6 142.9 143.9 144.6 145.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 7 6 5 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 14 21 16 4 2 2 2 7 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -15. -18. -18. -18. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 6. 3. -5. -14. -23. -29. -31. -30. -31. -30. -31. -31. -33. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.7 136.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/23/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.48 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.02 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.78 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 25.8% 21.1% 15.6% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.5% 5.0% 3.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.4% 10.4% 8.1% 5.8% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/23/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##