* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/23/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 26 25 28 32 37 43 45 49 53 58 62 64 65 66 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 23 26 29 33 38 43 46 50 53 59 63 65 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 26 26 27 28 30 33 35 38 42 46 49 51 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 19 15 15 12 7 13 5 4 6 4 6 4 16 15 23 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -2 0 -2 0 0 2 -1 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 32 28 21 14 14 20 56 9 43 272 297 282 212 263 287 300 352 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.5 27.9 28.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 165 165 164 160 158 159 155 148 147 147 143 143 137 139 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 157 157 157 155 150 144 140 132 124 122 123 123 125 124 128 138 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 67 67 69 72 74 73 68 57 55 50 51 48 49 48 48 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 10 9 7 6 5 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 4 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 3 8 6 13 11 -11 -23 -23 -17 -47 -28 -57 -36 -43 -23 -22 -21 200 MB DIV 26 20 15 22 47 30 40 24 23 12 6 1 5 -7 4 -23 -15 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -1 -2 -4 -3 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 1 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 283 185 89 -11 56 289 522 718 825 885 909 885 860 841 742 423 92 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.4 17.2 18.1 19.0 21.1 23.2 25.0 26.2 26.9 27.3 27.3 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.4 65.7 66.0 66.1 66.3 66.3 66.1 65.9 66.0 66.2 66.6 67.3 68.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 10 11 10 7 5 3 3 4 6 9 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 74 84 79 74 81 70 38 30 30 29 30 31 31 38 14 45 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 33. 35. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -15. -18. -19. -21. -21. -20. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -2. 3. 7. 13. 15. 19. 23. 28. 32. 34. 35. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 65.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/23/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.43 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 78.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.48 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.89 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 13.6% 8.5% 5.8% 5.2% 8.4% 10.7% 17.1% Logistic: 1.6% 6.4% 3.8% 1.6% 0.6% 3.3% 5.9% 7.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 2.0% 6.7% 4.1% 2.5% 2.0% 4.0% 5.6% 8.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/23/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/23/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 27 23 26 29 33 38 43 46 50 53 59 63 65 65 66 18HR AGO 30 29 28 24 27 30 34 39 44 47 51 54 60 64 66 66 67 12HR AGO 30 27 26 22 25 28 32 37 42 45 49 52 58 62 64 64 65 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 26 30 35 40 43 47 50 56 60 62 62 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT