* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/23/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 52 51 47 41 34 31 29 27 26 22 21 21 22 24 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 52 51 47 41 34 31 29 27 26 22 21 21 22 24 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 51 49 45 43 40 38 38 38 39 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 30 16 11 9 23 20 30 21 25 20 17 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 -1 1 3 2 2 -1 -3 -1 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 259 258 310 304 305 290 291 295 305 309 321 357 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.4 26.8 25.5 25.1 25.8 25.4 26.1 25.4 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 131 128 128 122 111 107 113 109 115 109 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 115 111 108 109 106 97 94 97 93 97 92 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -54.3 -54.6 -55.6 -56.5 -57.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.0 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 55 56 59 60 53 46 43 37 34 38 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 21 20 17 13 11 10 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -3 -1 -11 -7 35 43 24 16 10 0 -40 -62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 36 13 21 31 29 30 17 11 1 -11 -35 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 1 5 1 5 -2 15 5 16 3 9 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 960 1015 960 937 913 959 1059 1062 1093 1112 1114 1151 1228 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 28.9 29.5 30.2 30.8 32.2 33.6 34.8 35.8 36.4 36.7 36.7 36.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.2 68.3 68.4 68.1 67.8 66.2 63.6 60.4 57.4 54.9 52.2 49.5 46.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 11 14 14 12 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 19 14 11 13 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -2. -5. -10. -16. -19. -22. -24. -26. -28. -28. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -14. -21. -24. -26. -28. -29. -33. -34. -34. -33. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.2 68.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/23/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.34 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 284.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.27 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 12.6% 8.4% 6.4% 5.5% 7.8% 6.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.4% 2.9% 2.2% 1.8% 2.6% 2.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/23/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/23/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 54 52 51 47 41 34 31 29 27 26 22 21 21 22 24 18HR AGO 55 54 54 52 51 47 41 34 31 29 27 26 22 21 21 22 24 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 48 44 38 31 28 26 24 23 19 18 18 19 21 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 40 34 27 24 22 20 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT