* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/23/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 50 50 49 46 41 35 33 29 29 24 22 20 19 19 V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 50 50 49 46 41 35 33 29 29 24 22 20 19 19 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 51 49 44 41 38 36 34 32 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 38 31 33 20 10 24 24 39 26 24 16 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 6 1 0 0 5 3 2 0 0 -1 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 272 254 253 268 319 307 292 290 302 307 299 307 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.2 26.5 26.6 25.7 25.2 25.4 25.9 25.3 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 141 137 131 125 118 121 113 109 110 114 108 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 121 116 112 106 100 104 99 96 96 97 92 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -54.5 -54.7 -55.6 -56.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 54 54 50 48 57 49 42 40 37 33 38 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 20 21 20 17 13 11 11 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -20 -11 3 -8 3 33 77 19 8 -14 -7 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 65 56 40 18 28 51 27 -5 -6 -3 12 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 5 8 1 6 10 -3 17 9 16 11 13 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 898 962 1028 971 911 851 918 1011 1034 1068 1045 1017 1041 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.2 28.8 29.5 30.2 31.5 32.9 34.2 35.3 36.4 37.3 37.9 38.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.6 67.9 68.1 68.3 68.4 68.0 66.3 63.4 59.8 56.1 52.7 49.7 46.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 12 15 16 15 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 26 20 14 9 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 36.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -12. -15. -17. -17. -19. -22. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -9. -14. -16. -19. -21. -23. -23. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -9. -14. -20. -22. -26. -26. -31. -33. -35. -36. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.5 67.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/23/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 36.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 351.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.30 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 3.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/23/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/23/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 52 50 50 49 46 41 35 33 29 29 24 22 20 19 19 18HR AGO 55 54 53 51 51 50 47 42 36 34 30 30 25 23 21 20 20 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 49 48 45 40 34 32 28 28 23 21 19 18 18 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 44 41 36 30 28 24 24 19 17 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT