* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/22/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 55 54 55 55 52 47 40 38 31 27 22 24 21 19 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 55 54 55 55 52 47 40 38 31 27 22 24 21 19 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 55 54 50 46 43 41 38 36 34 33 35 40 44 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 35 40 36 34 24 12 24 29 38 28 42 33 43 43 70 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 3 4 -2 0 5 4 -2 9 -2 0 -9 -3 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 288 280 274 262 248 251 286 302 275 282 284 306 271 250 253 285 300 SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.2 27.5 27.0 26.4 25.4 25.9 23.1 18.0 19.2 16.7 15.3 14.4 14.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 151 151 144 138 129 125 120 112 117 96 77 80 75 74 74 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 131 130 123 118 110 107 106 100 103 86 72 73 71 71 71 70 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -54.3 -54.9 -55.2 -56.4 -57.3 -57.7 -57.3 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 55 53 53 52 46 57 49 40 39 42 45 50 59 60 58 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 20 20 22 20 18 15 11 11 10 9 9 14 18 24 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -18 -26 -18 -10 -7 14 55 97 83 88 91 80 80 47 4 -36 200 MB DIV 90 81 58 55 57 31 37 73 47 14 16 -13 31 41 26 -18 -70 700-850 TADV 26 10 9 8 9 9 7 -2 24 10 39 37 22 23 1 -70 -95 LAND (KM) 795 857 922 993 1033 926 884 943 860 779 583 543 809 1162 1437 791 236 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 27.0 27.7 28.4 29.1 30.5 32.2 34.2 36.5 39.0 41.5 43.9 45.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.9 67.2 67.5 67.6 67.8 67.9 67.1 64.9 61.2 56.8 52.1 47.4 42.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 11 17 20 21 21 21 20 23 27 29 28 HEAT CONTENT 25 31 32 26 20 14 24 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -10. -13. -17. -19. -23. -26. -32. -37. -45. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 2. -1. -6. -12. -13. -15. -17. -18. -11. -6. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -0. -3. -8. -15. -17. -24. -28. -33. -31. -34. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 26.3 66.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/22/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 316.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/22/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/22/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 55 55 54 55 55 52 47 40 38 31 27 22 24 21 19 18HR AGO 55 54 54 54 53 54 54 51 46 39 37 30 26 21 23 20 18 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 50 51 51 48 43 36 34 27 23 18 20 17 15 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 45 45 42 37 30 28 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT