* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/22/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 37 39 41 44 47 48 51 57 64 68 69 72 70 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 37 39 41 43 46 47 50 56 63 66 67 70 69 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 39 39 38 38 39 41 45 49 52 54 55 55 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 14 16 24 32 26 21 11 10 13 8 15 11 15 21 23 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 3 -3 -5 -3 -2 1 0 0 -2 -3 0 0 -3 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 4 14 28 37 41 40 33 23 68 118 135 167 222 225 259 269 274 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 161 163 161 160 162 164 162 159 159 156 147 146 146 146 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 154 159 160 157 154 154 155 150 144 139 135 126 124 125 124 123 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 69 69 67 66 66 67 74 71 68 59 52 46 45 41 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 8 6 6 5 6 8 7 7 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 14 19 19 7 0 -7 -24 -3 -19 -12 -9 4 6 23 8 43 40 200 MB DIV 61 79 44 23 6 3 11 41 20 51 32 51 14 0 -16 -3 4 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -6 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 -3 1 0 LAND (KM) 145 201 244 306 367 304 124 35 245 435 602 709 738 721 704 691 681 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.5 14.0 15.4 16.9 18.8 20.7 22.4 23.9 24.9 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.1 61.9 62.7 63.3 64.0 65.0 65.7 65.9 65.8 65.6 65.6 65.9 66.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 44 51 58 58 58 72 84 74 75 50 32 29 24 27 34 43 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 30. 33. 35. 35. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -16. -15. -14. -15. -15. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 16. 22. 29. 33. 34. 37. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.1 61.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/22/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.27 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.33 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.84 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 15.8% 9.5% 6.1% 5.2% 7.7% 10.2% 14.0% Logistic: 5.4% 12.9% 9.6% 4.0% 1.4% 1.9% 2.3% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.6% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 1.7% 17.4% 12.2% Consensus: 4.0% 10.4% 6.9% 3.4% 2.2% 3.8% 10.0% 9.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/22/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/22/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 37 37 39 41 43 46 47 50 56 63 66 67 70 69 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 35 37 39 41 44 45 48 54 61 64 65 68 67 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 33 35 37 40 41 44 50 57 60 61 64 63 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 27 29 31 34 35 38 44 51 54 55 58 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT