* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/21/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 55 56 57 59 61 65 67 65 66 62 57 46 32 20 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 55 56 57 59 61 65 67 65 66 62 57 46 32 20 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 56 56 57 56 54 51 50 50 50 48 43 37 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 20 23 23 33 30 26 20 24 31 43 35 31 41 52 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 0 0 1 5 1 0 5 6 0 2 -6 10 15 15 SHEAR DIR 328 311 304 299 292 283 259 260 277 299 284 279 315 276 239 243 210 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.3 28.9 29.1 28.5 28.1 27.1 25.9 25.5 25.4 26.1 21.9 16.5 12.8 10.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 164 156 149 152 143 138 126 114 111 110 116 88 72 68 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 147 138 131 131 122 118 109 99 96 94 98 77 67 65 64 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -54.4 -56.3 -55.8 -54.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 66 67 63 61 55 57 52 58 52 39 27 17 23 26 41 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 14 15 18 19 20 21 21 23 23 21 16 10 5 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -7 -11 -16 -19 -35 -27 -16 6 31 119 140 85 84 93 145 209 200 MB DIV 44 33 36 38 73 61 38 19 72 100 81 15 -5 36 48 63 63 700-850 TADV 12 12 13 16 14 7 9 5 15 14 27 36 12 18 -24 -51 -52 LAND (KM) 448 539 593 653 718 869 1021 1036 1043 1063 949 855 719 570 342 283 421 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.4 24.2 25.0 25.7 27.2 28.6 30.0 31.7 33.6 35.6 37.6 39.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.5 66.1 66.8 67.0 67.3 67.5 67.4 66.9 65.5 63.5 61.3 59.0 56.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 9 12 13 14 13 13 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 49 38 33 28 24 27 19 15 17 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -15. -18. -21. -24. -28. -33. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 9. 7. 5. -3. -10. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 10. 11. 7. 2. -9. -23. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.5 65.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/21/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.31 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.12 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.53 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.8% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 4.2% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 2.4% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/21/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/21/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 55 55 56 57 59 61 65 67 65 66 62 57 46 32 20 18HR AGO 55 54 54 54 55 56 58 60 64 66 64 65 61 56 45 31 19 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 52 53 55 57 61 63 61 62 58 53 42 28 16 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 47 49 51 55 57 55 56 52 47 36 22 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT