* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIO EP142019 09/21/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 47 43 40 35 29 21 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 V (KT) LAND 55 52 47 43 40 35 29 21 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 V (KT) LGEM 55 53 51 47 44 37 31 25 22 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 27 31 29 26 17 13 9 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 4 0 3 1 -3 -4 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 73 76 73 82 85 81 103 137 168 283 287 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.3 27.6 26.2 25.1 24.0 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 155 158 157 140 124 112 100 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -52.6 -53.3 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 3 4 3 4 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 58 54 46 42 38 32 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 16 14 13 10 7 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 52 49 59 64 38 17 2 4 51 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 32 45 55 43 7 16 5 1 -12 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -11 -10 -4 -6 -1 3 -2 -7 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 522 467 413 352 296 222 174 163 183 178 177 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.8 20.4 21.8 23.3 24.6 25.5 26.1 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.3 110.4 110.7 111.0 111.8 112.8 113.9 114.8 115.6 116.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 7 9 9 7 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 14 13 14 15 13 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -19. -24. -24. -24. -22. -20. -18. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -12. -15. -20. -26. -34. -38. -38. -38. -38. -38. -38. -38. -38. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.2 110.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142019 MARIO 09/21/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142019 MARIO 09/21/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##