* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/20/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 76 76 76 69 58 49 41 38 37 37 36 35 34 32 30 V (KT) LAND 70 62 70 70 71 64 52 44 35 33 31 31 30 29 28 26 25 V (KT) LGEM 70 64 70 70 69 61 51 45 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 1 1 4 9 10 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 1 6 0 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 178 225 50 140 203 218 212 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 29.6 29.0 28.4 27.7 26.7 25.8 24.2 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 159 153 147 139 129 120 103 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 54 52 50 41 36 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 12 11 13 8 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 59 55 56 65 42 51 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 32 6 14 21 29 2 12 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 3 3 7 5 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 33 -15 37 61 84 84 167 134 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.2 23.3 23.6 23.8 24.4 25.3 26.3 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.0 110.7 111.3 111.9 113.0 114.1 115.2 116.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 18 13 9 5 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 6. -1. -12. -20. -29. -32. -33. -33. -34. -35. -36. -38. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 23.0 109.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/20/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.46 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.93 10.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 8.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 6.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 422.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.44 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.64 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 43.5% 47.3% 41.5% 32.5% 20.7% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.6% 5.2% 10.1% 3.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.9% 17.7% 17.3% 11.9% 7.6% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/20/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##