* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/20/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 67 67 67 70 70 69 68 70 78 77 75 69 64 58 55 V (KT) LAND 70 67 67 67 67 70 70 69 68 70 78 77 75 69 64 58 55 V (KT) LGEM 70 66 64 64 64 66 67 66 64 62 59 58 54 50 47 45 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 17 17 12 15 19 35 31 31 17 35 26 34 23 34 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 3 4 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 0 1 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 339 339 339 341 345 295 297 279 264 271 269 270 276 245 252 266 264 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.4 29.0 28.4 27.9 28.3 27.4 26.9 26.9 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 158 158 159 164 160 154 157 151 142 136 142 129 123 122 115 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 152 150 150 153 146 137 137 130 122 118 122 110 102 101 95 94 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -54.7 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 10 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 53 56 61 63 66 67 66 58 55 47 47 46 50 53 40 26 16 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 13 12 13 12 12 13 15 20 19 19 16 14 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 14 14 6 -2 0 7 1 -23 -8 -10 17 33 70 81 83 83 2 200 MB DIV 10 7 4 8 18 17 54 34 50 9 50 24 91 32 7 -15 -47 700-850 TADV 0 -2 1 5 8 4 9 4 3 2 11 8 17 -6 -3 -1 -50 LAND (KM) 484 380 314 312 356 452 539 695 852 1008 1029 1057 1035 949 877 855 784 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.8 20.4 21.1 21.7 23.1 24.4 25.9 27.3 28.6 30.2 32.1 33.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.2 62.5 63.7 64.7 65.8 67.5 68.6 69.0 68.8 68.0 66.8 65.1 63.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 12 11 10 8 7 7 8 11 12 11 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 61 75 73 77 73 54 39 40 32 22 15 23 13 5 6 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -1. 4. 2. 1. -3. -6. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 8. 7. 5. -1. -6. -12. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.2 61.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/20/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.46 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.44 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 408.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.50 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.49 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 13.1% 8.7% 6.9% 6.9% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.6% 1.5% 0.8% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.4% 3.5% 2.6% 2.5% 3.2% 0.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/20/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/20/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 3( 10) 4( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 67 67 67 67 70 70 69 68 70 78 77 75 69 64 58 55 18HR AGO 70 69 69 69 69 72 72 71 70 72 80 79 77 71 66 60 57 12HR AGO 70 67 66 66 66 69 69 68 67 69 77 76 74 68 63 57 54 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 63 63 62 61 63 71 70 68 62 57 51 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT