* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/20/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 47 45 42 41 43 47 46 43 38 35 34 34 32 30 V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 47 45 42 41 43 47 46 43 38 35 34 34 32 30 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 50 48 46 41 37 36 36 36 32 27 23 20 19 19 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 14 12 9 3 1 4 10 19 15 17 10 6 10 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 4 6 3 1 5 0 -3 5 8 11 0 -2 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 242 236 230 255 270 175 34 152 207 185 195 180 202 247 310 301 290 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.6 26.9 27.3 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 129 130 129 126 128 130 135 137 134 132 130 129 129 130 131 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 54 53 53 52 51 50 50 50 53 51 52 51 44 38 36 36 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 12 8 5 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 8 8 6 6 -2 4 26 46 83 75 48 30 28 34 47 41 20 200 MB DIV 44 47 31 21 1 -19 2 34 55 71 28 21 58 29 -2 -8 0 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 4 9 2 -1 -3 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1926 1937 1950 1973 1997 2094 2213 2170 2063 1961 1879 1831 1778 1706 1658 1614 1562 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.2 17.9 17.4 17.0 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.1 130.5 130.8 131.2 131.5 132.4 133.4 134.4 135.4 136.3 137.0 137.4 137.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 18 18 18 14 7 9 11 14 17 19 13 8 5 5 6 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -7. -3. -4. -7. -12. -15. -16. -16. -18. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.5 130.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/20/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.43 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.34 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 -2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 21.5% 14.5% 14.0% 10.2% 15.9% 13.9% 12.2% Logistic: 0.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 7.7% 5.2% 4.7% 3.4% 5.3% 4.6% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/20/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##