* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/20/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 92 91 89 87 82 82 80 77 75 73 79 81 85 81 75 63 V (KT) LAND 90 92 91 89 87 82 82 80 77 75 73 79 81 85 81 75 63 V (KT) LGEM 90 94 96 95 93 90 87 85 80 73 67 64 63 61 54 45 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 20 21 18 12 16 19 34 36 34 32 50 48 62 44 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 0 1 4 3 0 0 -1 2 -4 -9 -1 -6 3 8 SHEAR DIR 314 322 332 342 351 345 302 286 279 262 274 257 234 235 234 254 273 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.3 28.7 28.0 27.6 26.9 25.6 17.9 11.8 8.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 162 162 158 158 162 160 154 156 147 139 134 126 113 76 68 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 159 158 152 151 151 146 137 137 130 124 120 112 99 71 66 65 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -54.9 -56.0 -55.9 -56.2 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 10 10 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 52 54 58 63 67 71 66 53 51 42 37 42 47 54 57 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 13 12 14 12 13 13 12 13 14 18 21 25 26 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR 19 17 12 4 5 9 7 2 -30 -16 -33 4 35 82 59 9 49 200 MB DIV 31 8 30 16 1 24 30 46 38 36 47 80 46 49 60 44 51 700-850 TADV -3 3 1 -6 3 10 3 11 4 10 7 22 11 15 32 25 31 LAND (KM) 813 671 538 427 351 370 485 586 767 965 1062 1056 829 588 398 44 196 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.7 19.3 19.9 20.5 21.8 23.2 24.7 26.4 28.1 30.4 33.4 36.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.0 59.3 60.7 62.0 63.3 65.5 67.1 68.1 68.1 67.5 66.2 64.1 61.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 8 9 11 15 18 20 19 19 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 40 50 56 68 72 68 49 33 31 23 16 10 9 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. -19. -25. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -9. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -16. -20. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -6. -6. -1. 2. 7. 7. 8. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -1. -3. -8. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -11. -9. -5. -9. -15. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.1 58.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/20/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.34 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.35 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 606.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.30 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.33 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 15.0% 10.2% 7.6% 6.8% 8.5% 9.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 9.0% 6.6% 5.6% 2.9% 4.6% 2.2% 0.7% Bayesian: 6.8% 7.6% 4.3% 0.5% 0.1% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 6.7% 10.5% 7.0% 4.6% 3.3% 5.2% 3.8% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/20/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/20/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 12( 23) 10( 30) 8( 36) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 4( 6) 4( 10) 3( 12) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 92 91 89 87 82 82 80 77 75 73 79 81 85 81 75 63 18HR AGO 90 89 88 86 84 79 79 77 74 72 70 76 78 82 78 72 60 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 82 77 77 75 72 70 68 74 76 80 76 70 58 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 73 73 71 68 66 64 70 72 76 72 66 54 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 66 66 64 61 59 57 63 65 69 65 59 47 IN 6HR 90 92 83 77 74 71 71 69 66 64 62 68 70 74 70 64 52 IN 12HR 90 92 91 82 76 72 72 70 67 65 63 69 71 75 71 65 53