* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/20/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 68 72 76 82 82 77 68 58 48 45 41 36 32 27 24 V (KT) LAND 60 63 68 72 61 72 70 65 47 42 33 29 25 21 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 62 65 68 59 67 66 63 47 44 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 8 6 6 7 7 19 25 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -1 0 0 2 5 2 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 261 239 223 200 306 273 252 234 240 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.2 31.1 30.7 30.1 29.4 27.9 26.7 25.2 23.8 22.1 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 170 165 158 142 130 114 99 81 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 7 6 7 8 4 5 2 3 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 61 57 55 55 49 47 46 49 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 80 75 64 58 51 55 47 20 38 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 67 32 36 18 5 11 0 24 22 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -5 -7 0 1 6 16 3 12 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 157 174 91 21 -6 25 26 33 -15 59 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.3 24.1 25.1 26.4 27.6 28.6 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.1 108.8 109.5 110.2 111.4 112.4 113.4 114.3 115.0 115.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 33 32 24 17 6 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 16. 22. 22. 17. 8. -2. -12. -15. -19. -24. -28. -33. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 22.0 107.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/20/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.66 11.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 10.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 11.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 7.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.82 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.0% 59.9% 51.4% 38.4% 32.0% 26.5% 17.0% 10.2% Logistic: 9.4% 18.0% 14.3% 6.9% 4.4% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.5% 26.5% 22.1% 15.1% 12.1% 9.4% 5.7% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/20/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##