* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/19/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 77 61 48 37 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 77 61 48 37 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 78 66 55 48 40 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 56 54 51 46 48 38 42 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 25 10 6 7 2 1 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 214 222 216 206 211 238 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.8 24.7 23.4 20.9 15.4 19.2 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 124 104 95 84 73 81 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 105 89 83 75 69 76 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.2 0.4 1.1 1.7 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 43 43 44 46 61 68 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 42 36 30 28 27 26 24 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 105 61 30 9 11 69 103 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 39 47 57 71 69 54 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 34 24 -8 -35 -24 -43 -62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 830 725 619 568 478 319 704 1188 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.7 39.0 40.3 41.4 42.5 44.2 45.3 46.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.3 58.5 57.6 56.5 55.4 51.1 44.2 37.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 14 14 15 22 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 21 CX,CY: 12/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -18. -26. -36. -45. -52. -57. -61. -65. -68. -70. -71. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -6. -14. -19. -24. -31. -34. -34. -36. -36. -35. -37. -39. -41. -42. -45. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -2. -6. -10. -12. -14. -21. -31. -34. -36. -38. -39. -39. -38. -37. -35. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -13. -29. -42. -53. -68. -84.-100.-109.-113.-116.-118.-123.-128.-133.-135.-137. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 37.7 59.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 51.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 464.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 1.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 96.2 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/19/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 0( 12) 0( 12) 0( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 77 61 48 37 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 73 60 49 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 73 62 47 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 69 54 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 56 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT