* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/19/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 57 57 56 54 55 51 51 55 55 51 47 45 43 41 V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 57 57 56 54 55 51 51 55 55 51 47 45 43 41 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 55 54 51 47 44 41 40 41 43 41 36 32 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 6 6 8 10 3 7 7 7 4 12 17 11 10 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -1 0 0 -3 2 0 0 4 0 0 5 11 3 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 83 147 199 216 255 245 285 83 97 73 107 184 188 175 177 182 214 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 138 138 138 138 136 132 128 131 132 130 130 128 128 127 125 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 64 61 60 60 60 60 58 56 58 56 57 56 53 47 41 35 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 15 17 17 17 16 17 15 14 17 17 16 13 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 48 39 34 23 18 8 6 -4 19 32 67 89 81 58 66 48 66 200 MB DIV 27 29 34 48 47 44 28 -6 6 6 24 66 71 28 39 7 0 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 -4 0 -1 0 -1 2 7 4 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1891 1916 1942 1954 1966 1985 2021 2087 2192 2237 2112 1967 1835 1716 1615 1539 1454 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.9 17.2 17.1 16.8 16.3 16.3 16.7 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.0 128.5 128.9 129.3 129.6 130.3 131.0 131.7 132.7 133.9 135.1 136.4 137.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 10 12 15 25 32 20 12 13 11 10 16 3 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -0. -4. -4. 0. 0. -4. -8. -10. -12. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.8 128.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/19/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 6.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 26.7% 25.6% 19.3% 14.2% 19.8% 16.4% 13.0% Logistic: 5.5% 16.1% 7.6% 4.9% 1.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 14.4% 11.1% 8.1% 5.1% 7.5% 5.7% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/19/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##