* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/19/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 78 83 87 93 93 87 78 70 63 59 54 46 37 35 33 V (KT) LAND 65 71 78 83 87 93 93 87 78 70 63 59 54 46 37 35 33 V (KT) LGEM 65 72 77 81 85 90 94 93 87 78 68 60 53 45 37 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 12 9 8 6 9 12 15 17 7 7 7 13 19 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 2 2 5 1 0 -4 -5 -1 -2 -3 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 36 25 11 9 24 6 63 60 88 71 137 250 316 339 340 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.8 30.8 30.6 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.7 29.7 28.9 27.0 26.0 25.2 23.6 22.3 21.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 170 169 170 170 170 161 152 133 122 114 97 83 78 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.8 -51.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -52.6 -53.4 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 9 11 7 9 5 6 3 4 3 3 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 70 69 70 65 61 59 53 46 38 31 29 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 40 43 46 63 72 71 57 63 42 28 36 18 29 19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 83 90 85 70 75 40 54 8 41 -5 27 5 -36 -12 -31 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -15 -10 -6 -8 -5 -4 -2 -5 -4 0 -2 8 -1 -1 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 74 42 39 57 84 195 207 89 89 92 103 104 64 74 39 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.9 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.9 21.4 22.1 23.0 23.9 25.0 26.0 27.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.4 105.0 105.5 106.0 106.5 107.5 108.8 110.0 111.1 112.2 113.3 114.2 115.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 41 45 46 43 34 34 17 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 4. 1. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 18. 22. 28. 28. 22. 13. 5. -2. -6. -11. -19. -28. -30. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.3 104.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/19/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.65 13.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 12.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 8.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 9.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 13.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 9.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -9.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.40 3.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 72% is 5.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 12.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 51.2% 72.5% 63.9% 58.9% 50.4% 50.3% 29.9% 16.2% Logistic: 21.6% 45.9% 33.0% 20.3% 6.0% 29.0% 6.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 13.5% 46.2% 45.1% 35.4% 10.3% 28.1% 12.0% 0.0% Consensus: 28.8% 54.9% 47.4% 38.2% 22.2% 35.8% 16.0% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/19/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##