* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/19/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 65 67 68 68 66 69 67 69 69 73 77 84 92 92 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 65 67 68 68 66 69 67 69 69 73 77 84 92 92 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 68 71 75 75 73 72 73 73 71 68 67 73 77 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 17 16 15 21 19 19 14 23 29 35 28 25 33 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -2 -1 0 1 2 2 -3 1 2 0 1 1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 304 300 314 328 331 333 331 332 289 287 260 264 262 262 233 246 233 SST (C) 28.3 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.0 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.3 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 147 148 155 157 159 153 163 165 162 154 151 150 150 142 129 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 146 147 155 157 157 148 155 154 148 136 131 130 130 123 111 108 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -54.4 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 47 48 48 50 51 55 64 72 77 70 59 55 50 55 53 45 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 13 13 13 13 10 11 11 13 14 17 20 26 34 36 850 MB ENV VOR 37 29 18 10 8 5 4 -3 14 11 18 -8 4 28 95 192 198 200 MB DIV 30 5 11 31 30 2 33 15 30 56 71 5 82 81 120 61 49 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 0 0 3 -8 9 4 10 5 13 10 19 10 10 15 LAND (KM) 1099 1064 974 895 843 622 347 280 397 509 698 878 960 965 1022 1008 881 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.2 18.4 19.6 20.9 22.4 24.2 26.0 27.6 29.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.2 52.6 53.9 55.3 56.8 59.8 62.7 65.2 67.3 69.0 69.8 69.5 68.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 10 11 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 25 31 40 51 49 54 67 89 71 51 50 32 22 26 21 14 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -9. -7. -6. -3. 1. 7. 15. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 11. 14. 12. 14. 14. 18. 22. 29. 37. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.2 51.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/19/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.57 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 421.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.49 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.59 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.89 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 32.0% 20.3% 14.5% 8.6% 16.7% 14.4% 13.6% Logistic: 14.6% 28.2% 33.7% 22.0% 4.2% 10.5% 4.3% 4.4% Bayesian: 4.6% 31.7% 15.5% 0.6% 0.6% 8.8% 10.1% 0.4% Consensus: 10.4% 30.6% 23.2% 12.4% 4.5% 12.0% 9.6% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/19/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/19/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 3( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 2( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 63 65 67 68 68 66 69 67 69 69 73 77 84 92 92 18HR AGO 55 54 58 60 62 63 63 61 64 62 64 64 68 72 79 87 87 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 55 56 56 54 57 55 57 57 61 65 72 80 80 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 48 48 46 49 47 49 49 53 57 64 72 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT