* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/18/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 71 79 87 99 106 104 98 86 76 69 63 57 48 46 44 V (KT) LAND 60 65 71 79 87 99 106 104 98 86 76 69 63 57 48 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 71 76 83 99 110 114 107 94 80 69 60 52 44 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 15 13 13 4 8 17 19 14 14 10 14 14 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 5 0 -2 4 4 -3 -4 -6 -6 -2 -5 4 12 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 18 29 23 7 1 8 104 104 93 115 144 196 270 338 32 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.8 30.9 30.8 30.6 30.5 30.6 30.7 29.9 29.4 27.6 26.2 25.5 23.6 22.4 21.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 170 170 169 170 170 163 158 139 124 117 97 84 78 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -52.2 -52.6 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 7 9 9 8 6 6 4 4 4 4 3 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 75 75 73 72 73 67 61 60 55 52 49 41 32 28 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 12 14 17 21 22 23 20 19 17 16 16 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 23 40 44 50 73 80 63 67 55 34 32 5 39 -4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 74 87 70 61 53 51 23 29 50 3 35 -19 -38 -42 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -17 -13 -8 -4 -3 -1 1 0 -6 2 0 1 3 -2 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 103 81 39 47 57 139 247 119 87 115 78 108 40 49 29 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.3 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.7 21.3 21.9 22.6 23.5 24.5 25.8 27.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.6 105.1 105.6 106.0 107.0 108.3 109.6 110.8 112.0 113.0 113.9 114.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 39 42 46 46 37 35 21 14 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 65.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 9. 6. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 20. 17. 14. 11. 8. 8. 6. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 18. 10. 3. -2. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 19. 27. 39. 46. 44. 38. 26. 16. 9. 3. -3. -12. -14. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.6 104.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/18/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.69 9.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.27 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 9.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 5.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.39 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.9% 54.1% 38.6% 26.8% 21.9% 38.2% 28.2% 16.8% Logistic: 5.9% 18.1% 7.9% 3.8% 1.2% 12.1% 7.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 1.8% 18.2% 6.8% 2.1% 1.2% 10.0% 10.3% 2.2% Consensus: 9.9% 30.1% 17.8% 10.9% 8.1% 20.1% 15.4% 6.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/18/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##